On Tuesday night, we suggested that the S&P 500 might have bottomed on Monday, with a pullback of 9.1% (i.e., just under a 10% correction) from its January 27 record high. Tuesday’s strong equity rally was triggered by reports

I. The War and the President’s Speech Yesterday, we concluded that the S&P 500’s pullback bottomed on Monday, just shy of a 10% correction. The S&P 500 fell on Monday to 6343.72, down 9.1% from its January 27 record

Today’s powerful relief rally in the stock market was fueled by news that President Donald Trump intends to declare victory in the war with Iran, according to an article in this morning’s Wall Street Journal. Around noon, the market moved

I. The War Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian general and military theorist, famously observed that “war is a mere continuation of politics by other means.” He argued that war is never an end in itself. Instead, it is a

The fog of war is getting thicker because of the likelihood of US boots on the ground (the “bog of war”). The US Department of War has deployed 15,000 troops to the war zone, raising the risks of a

This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East. On Friday, the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities, with Iran retaliating across the Persian Gulf, while President Trump pushed back a deadline

NEWS FLASH: President Donald Trump postponed Obliteration Day again today, until Monday, April 6 at 8:00 pm EST. He said he is granting a request from the Iranian government to extend the pause on potential airstrikes on Iran’s power plants

President Donald Trump must believe that the war will be over soon. The White House announced today that he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14 and 15.  The Iranians responded to Trump’s 15-point peace plan today

Stocks rallied on Monday because President Donald Trump postponed his 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the country doesn’t fully open the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, he extended the deadline by five days, until Friday,

The AI-driven semiconductor rally has been remarkable during the current bull market, which started on October 12, 2022. It received a big boost when ChatGPT was introduced on November 30, 2023. Memory chips have been a major driver of

The week ahead is all about oil prices. As the Iran war enters its fourth week, the soaring price of crude has rapidly upended economic forecasts and shifted expectations for central bank policy. Nowhere more so than at the Fed. In

Is the fog of war thinning or thickening? President Donald Trump has suggested that he is getting ready to declare victory. However, the Iranians have been at war with the US and Israel for 47 years and are showing

There’s plenty of geopolitical risk today, along with higher global inflation and larger US federal budget deficits ahead. Yet, the price of an ounce of gold is down sharply today. It fell to an intraday low of $4508 per

The fog of war is back. Oil prices jumped today after Israel attacked Iran’s largest gas processing facility. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened to strike oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Qatar then reported that

The latest crude oil price spike has drawn comparisons to previous similar spikes (charts). There were six of them before the current one, since 1970. The first five coincided with recessions. The two during the 1970s caused two recessions

Forecasting the weather is easier than forecasting the timeline and outcome of a war. The expression “the fog of war” is a bit confusing because fog often lifts within hours. Wars last much longer. Today, we had “a break

This week, many of the world’s top central banks have their first crack at responding to skyrocketing oil and gas prices driven by the war in the Middle East.  Along with hearing from the Fed (Wed), we’ll get rate

Why has the stock market held up so well since the start of the war? The S&P 500 is down only 4.96% from its record high on January 27 and 3.59% since the start of the war on February

Stock and bond prices fell today as oil prices rose back to around $100 per barrel. The US and Israel continue to pound Iran from the air, but Iran’s regime continues to launch missiles and drones at Gulf nations

Today, the 32-member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously approved a coordinated emergency oil release of 400 million barrels, the largest in its 52-year history. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately 20mbd of

Tomorrow, the 32 countries that are members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will vote on an IEA proposal to tap their strategic petroleum reserves to bring down oil prices, which have been boosted by the latest war in

Oftentimes, when the financial markets are hit by bad news, policymakers scramble to calm them. That happened today in response to last night’s soaring oil prices (chart). (1) G7 response. To address the market turmoil following the escalation of the

This promises to be a nerve-racking week of developments in the Middle East. In the nine days since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the conflict has embroiled various neighboring countries. Tehran’s moves to effectively shut the

This evening, the prices of a barrel of Brent and WTI crude oil are up about $15 to $107. The price of gold is falling because the dollar’s foreign exchange value is rising. The 10-year bond yield is up

On Tuesday, we warned: “We’ve been expecting a pullback due to excessive bullish sentiment, but now we expect a 10% correction from the high. It’s hard to imagine that the IRGC won’t use drones and speed boats to maintain

Oil prices stabilized today, so stock prices rose. We expected a pullback in the S&P 500 in early 2026. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% from its record high of 6987.60 on January 27 through Wednesday’s close. It was up

Our initial reaction to the latest war in the Middle East was that it isn’t likely to last long. However, wars are hard to predict. The fog of war can be very disorienting. The US and Israel killed the

I. Hot war with Iran and cold war with China We remain in the short-war camp on the outlook for the current conflict in the Middle East. The stock market seems to agree, since it barely budged today, though defense stocks

Nothing upends the economic game board like a sudden war few had in their bingo cards a week ago. Granted, the coordinated US-Israel attack on Iran over the weekend wasn’t a complete surprise. But the scale of the bombardment

We started writing our Market Call on Friday. Saturday morning, we woke up to the news of the joint military campaign by the US and Israel against Iran’s evil Mullah regime. It appears that the two allies have complete